Are We Nearly There Yet?

We’re all a little sick of this pandemic. Right? It’s literally the only things that genuinely unites almost the whole human race. We’re sick of it. I say almost, because there are those few, strange folk who still insist there is no pandemic, it’s all just a Jewish hoax involving Bill Gates and the lizard people. So it’s just almost all of us. But then we predictably start breaking down into different groups. We divide into competing camps of ‘do knows’ v ‘don’t knows’ regarding what happens next. Paracetamol v Horse Dewormer. World of science v Twitter’s Shazza3462794. And so on.

Omicron certainly made itself a pain in my backside. It made its appearance while I was in the US, prompting new travel restrictions by Boris. I had to change the £19 Day 2 Lateral Flow test that I booked for my return into a £99 same day PCR test. This was last week when there were just a handful of cases. It’s raging through the country now, probably 200,000+ new infections each day, and rapidly accelerating. I have friends in my home town of London, which is currently being pulverised, and they are dropping like flies. It seems to make no difference if they’re double jabbed or previously infected. This is anecdata, I know. But I suspect it’ll hold up to the evidence when it comes.

I have no idea how well vaccines will perform when it comes to keeping people out of hospital. I’m equally clueless when it comes to the severity of disease Omicron can inflict. I don’t think Covid Passports will work now – the Omicron horse has bolted. Will we have yet another lockdown? Oof, I hope not, but…well. My hunch is that the on coming wave won’t be as mild as the optimists hope and a world of pain and suffering is about to hit the world. Once again, the West can look to the UK to see how things are about to go for them.

But I am increasingly confident in one thing. Are we nearly done with this pandemic? We likely are nearly there. Really. I can feel it in my bones. This Omicron wave looks like it will sweep everything before it. Where once we had waves, now we have the tsunami. A German health minister summed it up nicely – by the end of winter, everyone will have been vaccinated, recovered, dead. Or all three.

There are some insightful minds on Twitter that are worth listening to on the topic of Covid. I really recommend these folk if this is the sort of stuff that interests you. Click here to go meet them. Meanwhile, I shall continue with life. I had my booster last week. A dose of Pfizer to add to my double dose of Astra Zeneca. I’ll enjoy Christmas. And I’ll carry on being sensible.

7 thoughts on “Are We Nearly There Yet?

  1. We are vac-twins (though that does sound far too close too vacuous). Last Saturday, I added a Pfizer chaser to my double of AstraZeneca. Omicron has attained toehold status in Oregon. That is like saying I only saw one cockroach. We simply wait for the rest of the flood to engulf us. Or them. I flee Oregon on Sunday. And I will do my best not to be the carrier that introduces The Big O to Mexico, though I suspect it is already there.

    For once, I am more pessimistic than you. I suspect, like the poor, flu, and colds, The Virus will always be with us. And we will learn to live with it. Like nuclear weapons in Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea.


    1. Mrs P joined our AZ-AZ-PFZ club yesterday, at a walk in place in Milwaukee. So like you she’s had her mix of shots spread across different countries. In her case, continents. I suspect we’ll struggle together her shot added to the NHS record, which is a shame.

      I don’t doubt the virus will be with us till the end of time. But this variant looks mean enough to give the virus a big push from pandemic status to endemic. Maybe. But I’m not simple minded enough to declare the pandemic over just yet…


        1. The evidence coming out of South Africa gives plenty of reason for both optimism and a sense of horror. It would appear that vaccination/previous infection are holding against severe disease (ie, hospitalisation) for the majority of people. It may also be only 2/3 as sever as the original strain.This wave shouldn’t carry the lethality of previous waves. For a lot of people, the illness is akin to a normal cold. This is all great news.

          On the down side, is the potential scale of this wave. It’s likely to send a big chunk of the workforce home with the bug, which will be hugely disruptive. Dangerously so, perhaps. Then there’s an awful lot of people out there who have refused vaccination and haven’t thus far caught the bug. This will catch up with a goodly number of them. Hospitals and morgues will see a goodly number of covid victims yet.

          But I remain cautiously optimistic that the end of the pandemic is close. Of course, it’ll still kill a good chunk of people each year in an endemic state…


  2. The local pro football team has 18 players out of play with positive tests. They are down to a pick up QB from the waver wire. These are people who, at least half, have been infected before, at least once, been vaccinated or so them claim. I don’t think even one is sick, just testing positive.

    All that said, our local hospitals are full, they are running portable morgue units by the loading dock for the extra bodies, a lot of people are passing on. A younger crowd as well compared to a year ago, lots of working age folks-the old people seem to be more apt to get with the vaccination program.

    The vast numbers of people who will become infected from this new mutation will provide a number of new mutations, I’m sure…
    I hope it is like other times of pestilence where its ability to spread will be its downfall, just running out of hosts.
    Northeast Ohio is very much in Covid crises today.


    1. The UK effectively opened up last July and let the virus have a slow to moderate burn rate through the population. That was a policy I largely agreed with. We did want the economy to open up and we had vaccinated the most vulnerable. If we are working on the basis that everyone will be exposed to the virus sooner rather than later, then perhaps its best to get that exposure over and done with while the vaccine efficacy is still in good working order.

      Omicron is ripping through the population and doesn’t that much seem to care if they’re vaccinated or have been infected previously. Seriously, it’s going through people like nothing I’ve ever seen. Genuinely shocking. Look at today’s figure. That’s the official figure, as per test results. Actual infections, I’ve read, are likely 300k to 400k.

      But surely numbers of infections, while interesting and relevant, are now much less important than daily hospitalisations and total hospitalised? I wish that information was broadcast as prominently as infection rates.


      1. I copied this from a NYTimes article:
        “Some basic arithmetic makes the point: Imagine that the risk of death is 30 percent lower from an Omicron case than a Delta case — but that Omicron leads to a tenfold increase in cases. This combination would lead to a substantial increase in deaths. “It’s bad number times a decent number, and you end up with a bad number,” Wachter said.”

        Liked by 1 person

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