You’d completely lost count, hadn’t you? You had no idea what day of lockdown we’re now on. But that’s my purpose in life. To provide regular readers and random passers-by with bits and pieces of pointless information. But anyway, it’s true. If you’re in the UK, this is Day 462. Admittedly, the UK has never been in a proper lockdown and we’ve had long periods of fairly mild restrictions in between the stricter stuff. But Period of Varying Restrictions Day 462 doesn’t have much of a ring to it.
One could argue that we should stop looking back and start looking forward. We are now just 19 days away from the end of all restrictions. In theory. So I have a good idea what the title of the British movie will be – 462 Days. It’s been an interesting time. We’ve learned plenty. Face masks work, for example. We’re still learning. The right face masks work spectacularly well. We’re going to continue learning. What we learn and how will differ from person to person, according to our personal starting points.
One thing we’ve all learned is that the business of forecasting in a pandemic is tricky and best left to scientists and gypsies. Both of whom are professionals in this field, albeit with different toolboxes and success rates. The many Amateur Coronavirus Prediction societies on Facebook have proven most unreliable. I do feel that, over the last year, my own tentative thoughts on how events might progress haven’t been far off the mark. Indeed, they’ve been good enough that I can now confidently move on to Stage Four of the proceedings.
I’ll offer another prediction. We won’t need vaccine passports for long, because we’re all going to gain immunity. Either through vaccination or infection. One or the other. The latest strains of the virus have near measles levels of infectiousness. There will be no escaping it. There’s an odd number of people who are choosing to get their immunity the hard way. And I’m minded to say we’re probably about half way through the pandemic, measured both in time and deaths. There’s going to be a load of countries where the inevitable movie will be called A Thousand Days.
For plenty of countries, the worst is yet to come before the transition from pandemic to endemic disease is made. The virus is going to wreak further havoc on poorly vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Mexico is likely to fit in that group. Most of both Latin America and Africa. Big chunks of the Far East, much of which has thus far escaped the ravages of the coronavirus. Large parts of Europe remain vulnerable. Hold on to your seats, ladies and gentlemen.
But there is good news. Vaccines work. This is being proven right now in the UK. Choosing not to be vaccinated is a choice to get sick with the coronavirus. This is also being proven right now in the UK.