Lockdown Day 462

You’d completely lost count, hadn’t you? You had no idea what day of lockdown we’re now on. But that’s my purpose in life. To provide regular readers and random passers-by with bits and pieces of pointless information. But anyway, it’s true. If you’re in the UK, this is Day 462. Admittedly, the UK has never been in a proper lockdown and we’ve had long periods of fairly mild restrictions in between the stricter stuff. But Period of Varying Restrictions Day 462 doesn’t have much of a ring to it.

One could argue that we should stop looking back and start looking forward. We are now just 19 days away from the end of all restrictions. In theory. So I have a good idea what the title of the British movie will be – 462 Days. It’s been an interesting time. We’ve learned plenty. Face masks work, for example. We’re still learning. The right face masks work spectacularly well. We’re going to continue learning. What we learn and how will differ from person to person, according to our personal starting points.

One thing we’ve all learned is that the business of forecasting in a pandemic is tricky and best left to scientists and gypsies. Both of whom are professionals in this field, albeit with different toolboxes and success rates. The many Amateur Coronavirus Prediction societies on Facebook have proven most unreliable. I do feel that, over the last year, my own tentative thoughts on how events might progress haven’t been far off the mark. Indeed, they’ve been good enough that I can now confidently move on to Stage Four of the proceedings.

I’ll offer another prediction. We won’t need vaccine passports for long, because we’re all going to gain immunity. Either through vaccination or infection. One or the other. The latest strains of the virus have near measles levels of infectiousness. There will be no escaping it. There’s an odd number of people who are choosing to get their immunity the hard way. And I’m minded to say we’re probably about half way through the pandemic, measured both in time and deaths. There’s going to be a load of countries where the inevitable movie will be called A Thousand Days.

For plenty of countries, the worst is yet to come before the transition from pandemic to endemic disease is made. The virus is going to wreak further havoc on poorly vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Mexico is likely to fit in that group. Most of both Latin America and Africa. Big chunks of the Far East, much of which has thus far escaped the ravages of the coronavirus. Large parts of Europe remain vulnerable. Hold on to your seats, ladies and gentlemen.

But there is good news. Vaccines work. This is being proven right now in the UK. Choosing not to be vaccinated is a choice to get sick with the coronavirus. This is also being proven right now in the UK.

14 thoughts on “Lockdown Day 462

  1. You must have some gypsy genes… I do too and our divinations regarding COvID 19 are pretty-much one and the same. But I do hope Mexico proves to be somewhat more robust than you predict. Vaccinations continue to be administered at a multiple 100s of 1000s a day pace and most people have added many fetching masks to their outside-the-house wardrobes. I bought an hecho-en-Mexico dress the other day and it came with a face mask made from the same fabric. And yes, not vaccinating is equal to making a decision to get sick. I swear, many people have to learn the hard way…

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    1. Every dose administered is a help. Every second dose helps more. Every double dose plus two weeks for efficacy helps even more still. It truly is a race between vaccine and virus.

      One can hope for the best for Mexico. But prepare for the worst. The UK is having a third/fourth wave at the moment, despite having more than half the adult population fully vaccinated and 70% single dosed. Cases are rocketing as fast as they ever have. Hospitalisations and deaths will increase too. But the vaccination program here should blunt the outbreak and prevent the horror of the first waves.

      Mexico has less than 15% of the adult population vaccinated, and a chunk of those were given Chinese vaccines – better than nothing, but they appear to be pretty ineffective. The Delta strain is in the Mexican population.

      We wait and see what happens next.

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  2. Darwin and his natural selection is coming into play here in the US. Any adult that wants to be vaccinated is well past the time when there were not enough shots. It is a personal choice now and has been for better than a month or two. Our local number of infections are about where they were in April of 2020, less than ten a day in a county of 100,000 souls. Mask waring is down to about 10% of our population, yet 35% have not had their jabs. Darwin again…

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    1. I think that Natural Selection should be put on the death certificates of anti-vaxxers as the underlying cause of their demise. Maybe I should start one of those online petitions, just for shits and giggles.

      What happens next in the US will be interesting. There is significantly greater vaccine hesitancy there.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. From the first of July 2021 we in British Columbia will be mask free indoors and out unless we wish to wear one.
        Canada has a pop of about thirty eight million and we are at about twenty eight percent which grows daily that are fully vaccinated however our southern border remains closed to our southern neighbours except for essential traffic.

        There has been much discussion about Covid vaccination passports, we have a piece of cardboard showing the time, date and batch number of the vaccine and the initials of the jabber and it’s also logged online with all the other jabs we’ve had, foreign and domestic. That information maybe attached to our drivers license at some point. My drivers and health card are combined, it is credit card sized so very convenient to carry.
        We’ve had a few attempted incursions by sea by fish following fellows trying to slip under the net who have been fined heavily. It is somewhat easy to do as there are numerous islands off the w’et coast however there are both US and Canadian navy bases in those waters so not an easy task.
        You will probably find that in order to fly or cross borders Americans among others will have to prove that they have had both jabs and any following inoculations in order to travel. This disease and those carrying it will restrict travel for those people especially those who wish to invade Europe in any numbers as they have been devastated by the virus. Perhaps fines will be levied against those who bring it with them?
        One of the things that baffles me somewhat is the amount of servicemen and women who are against getting the vaccination. Those military folks get jabbed every time they go to a combat zone, Africa, Asia, South America, Middle East you very rarely hear of problems on that front. So why the kickback? A pal o’ mine is ex US navy has had apparently every jab known to man and he was on an aircraft carrier.

        It can’t be blamed entirely on ignorance, can it in all honesty? It must have to do with something viral, ignorance comes to mind and distrust of leadership…

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        1. The whole masks issue is a funny one. Why the fuss, I’ll never know. They were only ever part of the solution. The science behind their use is reasonable and not hard to understand. And popping one on is at worst a mild annoyance. And yet. A chunk of the population behaved like children who’d just been told there’s no pudding today. Still, as things stand face masks become unnecessary in 19 days. Their use could be extended, but I’m not convinced it’s worth doing so. The number of people no longer wearing them/not wearing them properly is such that their effectiveness is no longer that great.

          As for the antivax/anti lockdown/anti establishment sentiment out there. Social media has a lot to answer for, doesn’t it? It turns out that stupid is pretty contagious. I have a former colleague who has a bad case of it. He attended the March for Stupid in London last Saturday along with 60 to 70 thousand others, and returned absolutely adamant that he was one of two million people in attendance.

          People often have a tendency to believe what they want to believe, and what they want to believe often has more to do with what is convenient. Reality be damned. Still, you know what they say – empty vessels make the most noise. I take comfort in the success of the vaccination program, which shows which side 99% of the adult population lie.

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  3. Here in The Colonies (Canada) there is no unform plan. The Federal governament says it is up to the Provincial Health Ministries; our (Ontari-ari-ari-O) Health Ministry (different from the politicians) says it is up to the Municipal Health departments to follow (or not follow) guidelines. We are in Limbo here, or is it Purgatory? If you are interested the timeline is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ontario#January.
    As one with a compromized immune system I have only beeen to the hospital for my regular treatments since 29 March 2020. Powershell tells me that is “457 days have passed since 03-29-2020”. And so it goes… We are supposed to Open Up 30 June. We’ll see what that brings.

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    1. I can empathise. I have had recent bad experiences with viruses and also possess an immune system that doesn’t seem to like me much. So I’ve been generally sensible over the last year.

      Powershell is unaware that March 2020 lasted over a 100 days… 🙂

      (Terrible maths on my part, now corrected).

      Liked by 1 person

    2. I live in BC (Bring Cash) on the west coast, we have been well catered to. I feel our health ministry especially our provincial health officer Dr Bonnie Henry has served us well and was the ideal candidate as she had extensive experience with other SARS like diseases. Of course we all saw it coming especially when the early spring break returnees brought it back from France and fortunately she sprung into action.

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      1. I managed to get through SARS in TO, was it 2004 – 5? Am hoping it will help me out.
        Politicos here are more interested in their Friends in Business loosing $$ than the health of the province unlike the chief Health advisors…but we are getting vaccinated. It is the Variants I worry about.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. I always feel as if I am living on another planet when you talk about lockdowns. Mexico has had its fair share of lockdowns — as it should. The country has not handled the pandemic well. But the area where I live has not closed down — with the exception of semana santa a year ago. We are still a maskless, hug-and-kiss-your-aunt place. The reason is simple. If people did not go about their daily business, they would starve. Here, isolation is a luxury practiced by wealthy white northerners who whinge about their neighbors’ recklessness.

    Of course, our light hit on the virus (even though we are regularly inundated by tourists from the highly-infected urban areas) may not last. Another wave of infection is passing through the villages. But the same rules apply. Those who do not work, do not eat. It is almost as if St. Paul was the founder of the local economy.

    One day soon, we will all break free. Here is a suggestion. Why don’t we join up in Zambia in a month or two to test out some of those vaccination theories. That would be adventure enough for me.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Our different neighbourhoods might as well be different planets at the best of times, pandemic or no pandemic. But you’re right, and we’ve compared notes before – lockdowns are a rich mans game. Although I am concerned that you seem to imply hug-and-kiss-auntie is an essential business that prevents starvation. What sort of town do you live in? Sounds like something from Borat. There’s an essay waiting to be written there… 🙂

      On the topic of ‘things we’ve learned’… the UK is designed in such a way that we are an inviting and hospitable environment for an airborne virus. If you were a germ that likes densely populated places that spends a lot of time in poorly ventilated, multi generational indoor environments, well this is just paradise.

      But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Probably. Zambia sounds fun.

      Liked by 1 person

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